Paxton Isn't the Drag in West Houston. The Silence Is.

Every cycle, somebody in West Houston whispers the same line: Paxton is a drag on the ticket out here. It sounds smart at a cocktail party in Memorial. It just doesn't survive contact with the results.

I pulled the precinct-level data for Texas House District 133 and District 138 from theoelections.com. Here's what it shows.

Paxton has already won here. Twice.

Start with the last time Ken Paxton was on a general election ballot. In the 2022 race for attorney general, against Rochelle Garza:

• HD 133: Paxton 52.73%, Garza 44.13%
• HD 138: Paxton 52.82%, Garza 44.15%

That's a clean win of more than eight points in both districts.

For context: in 2024, Donald Trump carried HD 133 by about 7 points and Ted Cruz by 3.45. Paxton's 2022 margin there was bigger than both. And the down-ballot Republicans in HD 133 ran anywhere from R+13 to R+24 in 2024. That isn't a district looking for an excuse to leave the GOP. It's a district that votes Republican when Republicans show up.

The primary was a fight. The runoff was a verdict.

Yes, the March primary was rough in these parts. In the three-way Senate race:

• HD 133: John Cornyn 46.0%, Paxton 29.4%, Wesley Hunt 22.0%
• HD 138: Cornyn 40.65%, Paxton 34.96%

If you stopped reading there, you'd buy the "drag" theory. But primaries with three serious candidates don't settle anything. Runoffs do.

On May 26, it was Paxton against Cornyn, one on one. Paxton picked up the Hunt voters and won both districts outright:

• HD 133: Paxton 7,023 (52.48%), Cornyn 6,359
• HD 138: Paxton 6,635 (60.40%), Cornyn 4,351

In HD 133, Paxton went from under 30% to a majority. In HD 138, Paxton cleared 60%.

Republican voters in West Houston looked at the choice and picked Paxton. That's not a drag. That's the nominee.

The money isn't close either

Here's the other half of the picture. According to ad tracking shared publicly by Brad Johnson of The Texas Bullpen, Senate ad reservations booked from today through Election Day stand at $48.5 million pro-Paxton versus $3.9 million pro-Talarico.

That's a gap of more than $44 million. Campaigns don't build a 12-to-1 air war around a candidate they think is sinking the ticket.

So where are the local Republicans?

Here's where it gets uncomfortable. I looked for public endorsements of the top of our ticket, Donald Trump in 2024 and Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate in 2026, from ten Republican officials who serve these neighborhoods.

The scorecard:

• Wesley Hunt (U.S. Rep., CD 38) endorsed Trump in 2024, and endorsed Paxton for the general in August, after running against Paxton in the primary. Credit where it's due.
• Dan Crenshaw (U.S. Rep., CD 2) endorsed Trump. No public Paxton endorsement yet.
• Mano DeAyala (State Rep., HD 133) backed Cornyn in the runoff. No public Trump endorsement found.
• Lacey Hull (State Rep., HD 138), Paul Bettencourt (State Sen., SD 7), Joan Huffman (State Sen., SD 17), Tom Ramsey (County Commissioner, Pct. 3), Cindy Siegel (Harris County GOP Chair), Mary Nan Huffman (Houston City Council, District G), and Amy Peck (Houston City Council, District A): no public endorsement found for either Trump or Paxton.

One out of ten has publicly endorsed the Republican Senate nominee. One.

To be fair and precise: "none found" means I couldn't locate a public endorsement in news coverage, campaign sites, or official posts as of October 12, 2026. It is not a confirmed refusal. If I've missed one, send it to me and I'll update this post gladly.

But that's the point. If an endorsement is so quiet nobody can find it, it isn't doing much for the ticket.

Time to stand with the nominee

The voters of HD 133 and HD 138 already made their call. They gave Paxton a majority in 2022. They gave Paxton both districts in the runoff. The resources are there to win in November.

What's missing is the local bench. These officials have the trust of their neighbors, the mailing lists, the block walkers, and the name ID. The primary is over. The runoff is over. Republicans in West Houston picked their nominee.

So here's my ask, plainly: stand with Ken Paxton. Say it publicly. Put it on the website, post it, say it at the next club meeting. The ticket is stronger when the people closest to the voters say out loud that they're on it.

The data says Paxton isn't the drag in West Houston. Let's make sure the silence isn't either.

— Matt Cone

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Sources: Election results from theoelections.com (2021 Texas House plan): 2022 attorney general general election, 2024 general election, 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary (March) and runoff (May 26). Ad reservation figures from Brad Johnson, public post on X, Oct. 12, 2026: https://x.com/bradj_TX/status/2109738882317369424. Endorsement records from public reporting and campaign sites, including the Texas Tribune, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Capitol Inside, and The Texan. Houston City Council seats are officially nonpartisan. Earlier Desk posts on this topic: https://x.com/DeskofMattCone/status/2109746969577193948 · https://x.com/DeskofMattCone/status/2109749527133782300 · https://x.com/DeskofMattCone/status/2109754860040282310